bias

Careful but fearless 2

What happens now, after the attacks in Brussels yesterday, is that we fool ourselves in order to stay comfortable. A logic mistake many make is to think: A: All attackers were Muslims. (or: All tulips are flowers.) B: You are a Muslim. (or: A rose is a flower.) C: You are an attacker.   How wrong this logic is becomes clear, if we replace attackers with tulips, Muslims with flowers and you with a rose: A: All tulips are flowers. […]

Decision time?

I just read about a research of the McKinsey Institute about making decisions in the world of big business. Many decisions go wrong in that world by two psychological factors: confirmation bias and overconfidence bias. Both can be overcome by asking the right questions. If you take both biases in consideration, it helps you to know when it’s the right time to take a decision. Confirmation bias means, that for all of us it’s much easier to integrate new information […]